Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep

67%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 66.5%

No 33.5%

$28.2M vol·$9.1M liq·5 mkts⏱ 13d 5h

Hot

Fed Decision in October?

No change

88%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 87.5%

No 12.5%

$54.2M vol·$4.9M liq·5 mkts⏱ 7d 4h

Hot

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Other

50%chance

Yes 50.0%

No 50.0%

$58.7M vol·$10.4M liq·42 mkts⏱ 8mo

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

September 20

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$21.2M vol·$506K liq·20 mkts⏱ 10d 0h

Jazz vs. Grizzlies

O/U 229.5

Over75%

Under26%

$1.7M vol·$6.3M liq·76 mkts⏱ 5m

Hot

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Harry Kane

77%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 76.6%

No 23.4%

$57.3M vol·$11.8M liq·89 mkts⏱ 2mo

Hot

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro

80%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 79.7%

No 20.3%

$191.1M vol·$1.1M liq·32 mkts⏱ 4d 4h

Pacers vs. Pelicans

1H O/U 107.5

Over85%

Under16%

$1.0M vol·$4.7M liq·79 mkts⏱ 5m

NBA: 2027 Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

22%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 21.5%

No 78.5%

$28.3M vol·$8.0M liq·36 mkts⏱ 8mo

Kings vs. Clippers

Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 16.5

74%chance

Yes 73.5%

No 26.5%

$869K vol·$4.0M liq·74 mkts⏱ 2h 35m

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)

68%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 67.5%

No 32.5%

$5.1M vol·$923K liq·13 mkts⏱ 13d 5h

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-279

28%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 27.5%

No 72.5%

$1.9M vol·$210K liq·26 mkts⏱ 1d 16h

Hot

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

17%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 16.6%

No 83.5%

$1296.7M vol·$75.6M liq·128 mkts⏱ 24mo

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Other

50%chance

Yes 50.0%

No 50.0%

$4.1M vol·$771K liq·9 mkts⏱ 4d 4h

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party

92%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 91.5%

No 8.5%

$19.7M vol·$7.1M liq·9 mkts⏱ 13d 5h

Hot

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot

51%chance

2.2% spread

Yes 51.1%

No 48.9%

$50.3M vol·$3.9M liq·28 mkts⏱ 6d 4h

Hot

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$38.0M vol·$323K liq·31 mkts⏱ 2mo

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 21?

↑ 84,000

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$468K vol·$442K liq·16 mkts⏱ 4h 5m

Mavericks vs. Rockets

O/U 214.5

Over81%

Under19%

$463K vol·$3.9M liq·73 mkts⏱ 35m

Hot

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen

46%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 46.4%

No 53.6%

$154.7M vol·$20.0M liq·128 mkts⏱ 5mo

Warriors vs. Lakers

O/U 221.5

Over75%

Under26%

$484K vol·$4.0M liq·74 mkts⏱ 2h 5m

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

↑ 85,000

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$9.5M vol·$1.8M liq·37 mkts⏱ 10d 4h

MLS Cup Winner 2026

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

19%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 18.8%

No 81.3%

$22.6M vol·$656K liq·31 mkts⏱ 2mo

Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno

Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno Set 2 Winner

Santiago Rodriguez Taverna100%

Gonzalo Bueno0%

$360K vol·$58K liq·16 mkts⏱ 6d 15h

Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream

1H O/U 76.5

Over61%

Under40%

$330K vol·$817K liq·43 mkts⏱ 5m

Hot

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

↓ 60,000

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$77.2M vol·$4.4M liq·47 mkts⏱ 2mo

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia

68%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 67.5%

No 32.5%

$2.6M vol·$1.5M liq·37 mkts⏱ 4d 0h

Worlds 2026: Winner

Team I

50%chance

Yes 50.0%

No 50.0%

$2.3M vol·$2.3M liq·20 mkts⏱ 1mo

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

↑ $100

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$3.7M vol·$1.0M liq·32 mkts⏱ 10d 4h

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 2027

10%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 9.5%

No 90.5%

$30.0M vol·$877K liq·5 mkts⏱ 8mo

Hot

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

20%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 20.1%

No 80.0%

$718.2M vol·$60.2M liq·128 mkts⏱ 24mo

Bitcoin above ___ on October 22?

72,000

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.05%

$440K vol·$691K liq·11 mkts⏱ 16h 5m

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

72%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 71.5%

No 28.5%

$9.4M vol·$1.4M liq·18 mkts⏱ 8mo

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

↑ 84,000

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$501K vol·$627K liq·17 mkts⏱ 4d 4h

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31, 2027

50%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 49.5%

No 50.5%

$2.8M vol·$316K liq·6 mkts⏱ 2mo

Hot

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

49%chance

Yes 49.0%

No 51.0%

$714.1M vol·$51.6M liq·128 mkts⏱ 24mo

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Other

50%chance

Yes 50.0%

No 50.0%

$687K vol·$945K liq·10 mkts⏱ 4d 0h

# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?

60-80M

99%chance

0.9% spread

Yes 99.0%

No 1.1%

$1.0M vol·$96K liq·7 mkts⏱ 1d 4h

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar

69%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 68.5%

No 31.5%

$1.5M vol·$848K liq·39 mkts⏱ 6d 4h

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)

78%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 77.5%

No 22.5%

$620K vol·$329K liq·13 mkts⏱ 13d 5h

New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston

O/U 35.5

Over79%

Under22%

$231K vol·$2.2M liq·214 mkts⏱ 5m

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 2027

25%chance

2.0% spread

Yes 25.0%

No 75.0%

$27.9M vol·$403K liq·14 mkts⏱ 8mo

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

67%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 66.5%

No 33.5%

$7.7M vol·$4.5M liq·9 mkts⏱ 13d 5h

What price will Ethereum hit on October 21?

↑ 2,500

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$159K vol·$246K liq·14 mkts⏱ 4h 5m

Suns vs. Trail Blazers

O/U 220.5

Over74%

Under27%

$171K vol·$3.1M liq·74 mkts⏱ 2h 5m

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 31

81%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 80.5%

No 19.5%

$1.8M vol·$106K liq·6 mkts⏱ 2mo

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro

71%chance

2.0% spread

Yes 71.0%

No 29.0%

$459K vol·$261K liq·8 mkts⏱ 4d 4h

EPL: 2027 Champion

Arsenal

63%chance

1.0% spread

Yes 62.5%

No 37.5%

$23.0M vol·$10.9M liq·24 mkts⏱ 7mo

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

$50M

98%chance

0.8% spread

Yes 98.4%

No 1.6%

$7.2M vol·$321K liq·13 mkts⏱ 14mo

What price will Ethereum hit in October?

↓ 2,700

100%chance

0.1% spread

Yes 100.0%

No 0.00%

$2.5M vol·$1.3M liq·39 mkts⏱ 10d 4h

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